Specific Climate Impacts
In Norway the major observed impacts attributed to climate change are for biological systems and human and managed systems. They both are with medium confidence in attribution to climate change. The biological system includes terrestrial ecosystems, while the human and managed system includes livelihoods, health, and/ or economics. The key regional risks for Europe are increased economic losses where people will be affected by flooding due to increase in urbanization, sea level, erosion of the coast, and river discharge. Additionally people will be affected by extreme heat events which will have impacts on health. There will also be an significant reduction in water availability which will lead to an increase in water restrictions. This reduction in water ability is due to river and groundwater resources and also an increase in water demand. The increase in water demand has to do with irrigation, energy, and industry use.
Regional Climate Projections
During the last 30 years the trends in annual mean temperature in Europe exceed the global mean land trend and it is very likely that the mean temperatures will increase in the future for all regions in Europe. For the last 60 years there has been an increase in number of warm days and nights in Europe and an decrease in cold days and night. The studies also indicate a general increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation during winter time for the last 40 years. The winter seasons in Northern Europe are projected to increase in mean precipitation, while the summer season the mean precipitation will only have small changes. Studies indicates that winter variability in Europe may be related to sea ice reduction in the Barents sea. It is suggested though that cold winters in Europe will continue in coming decades despite an overall warming.
Detailed Look at Future Climate
Observed climate trends and future climate projections shows regionally varying changes in temperature and rainfall in Europe. There is an projected increase in temperature throughout Europe, and an increase in precipitation and in winter speed extremes in Northern Europe. There has also been an wide ranging affect on distribution and abundance of animals, fish and plant species throughout Europe. An increase in coastal- and river flood risks in Europe and also damages caused by this are projected due to sea level rise and an increase in extreme rainfall. There has been observed changes in extreme river discharge in some areas in Europe and also therefore changes in river flood occurrence. Cereal yields is likely to increase in Northern Europe, and climate change is very likely to increase the seasonal activity of plant diseases other places in Europe. The forest productivity in Northern Europe will increase due to climate change. There will be an increase in irrigation needs due to damage of crops by heat waves and also because of an decrease in runoff. Marine fish species has shifted to higher latitudes and reduced their body size due to the observed warming.
Most interesting threaths
For me, the most interesting impact of climate change is the increase in frequency of avalanches and landslides in Europe. The reason for this is that as an geology student I have taken a course in mass movement, rock avalanches and landslides and learned about the hazard and risks around this topic. I have also been so lucky to visit a research-team in Norway and seen how they are monitoring some of the mountains that are likely to experience huge avalanches in the next 20 years. I would love to work with avalanches in the future, so even though an increase in the frequency of avalanches in Europe will most likely cause huge damages, it is exciting to me geologically.
In the Alps there has been an increase in the frequency of rock avalanches and slides during the last 100 years. The frequency of landslides are projected to increase along with climate change. This is due to increase in precipitation and temperature changes which makes can make the already existing faults and cracks in mountainsides more unstable and cause failure which can lead to mass movement.
This map is showing the changes in mean number of heat waves for the months march, june, july, august and september for 2071-2100 ( RCP8.5) compared to 1971-2000 (RCP4.5). The map shows that almost all of Europe and will experience an increase in heat waves, and that Norway is the country in Scandinavia that will experience the most.
The map is downloaded from: https://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap23_FINAL.pdf
This map is showing the seasonal changes in heavy precipitation in percent for the months june, july and august for 2071-2100 ( RCP8.5) compared to 1971-2000 (RCP4.5). The map shows that especially northern Europe will experience seasonal changes in heavy precipitation. This map is downloaded from: https://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap23_FINAL.pdf
